Donald Trump Jr · Who will announce Presidential run before 2027
Donald Trump Jr. is priced at 7¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 7¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?.
Price history
7¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Donald Trump Jr.
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Kamala Harris 21¢
Range
2¢-21¢
Family volume
$397K
Identifier
0xf618b0b6...877a
Jun 8, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
7¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$5K
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$397K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 7¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual announces that they are running for President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xf618b0b6…877a
Event family
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$397K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Kamala Harris 21¢
Current share
1%
Kamala Harris
polymarket · 0x36114d2b2f66c9929b4151607d53472fb34c6d6888238f35d72cd51f30975873
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
polymarket · 0x59a624a70bb9f3a6d182b07e6427c8c879bee9c8dac2bfb89d18cb4aefcea803
Gavin Newsom
polymarket · 0x809eaa464104c09fbe8e54c582256dfa29b5061928790eea2e3d4908d96a7b5c
J.D. Vance
polymarket · 0x53141d6c10c6dd6166494835afba15204de77b7357fd8cd16fff3920329391f3
Marjorie Taylor Greene
polymarket · 0x71dcc747b514f670c9e0000c1cf963a5cd3a04aeb67400bc1c35fe19b76997bc
Hunter Biden
polymarket · 0xe147f7ff06d77fa6fb5cab4ace86e5e03b37667e0e927d0fc47ed7de86e260ba
Stephen A. Smith
polymarket · 0x78305c2676796fd70d564cd59c6d884f8228d8cbd63b70bf4ee420519953db8f
Kristi Noem
polymarket · 0x2651d3103355111f3d522d027df5e0d156122e411ae1e7888fe6bb9092633530
Rand Paul
polymarket · 0x4b5722322fe1cc520727ee78db609d213920119c11fd6e809b36607af8d8ac64
Ivanka Trump
polymarket · 0x3a4346b0618af3efcd946f27650d20cee348308bd4f8c06e62df8e9eabbe0fdb
Erika Kirk
polymarket · 0xba4fd9a865f276504c93226ba1c94cc588d2b5d3f51c574f34c35e5dd15dcd85
Donald Trump Jr.
polymarket · 0xf618b0b624851cbb63105866d3b5f810d510d45dd2c8170a283aa24d00b2877a
Zohran Mamdani
polymarket · 0x5c01405388eafd46554b6e95343eb7e37824b5ffcbf0081ed834500ddf39319f
MrBeast
polymarket · 0x152e3b6a035b597b6a7a4938f73ef9621bc84affecc51b8b889fba25bc930f9c
Katie Britt
polymarket · 0x8780300112c6618fc8196f627198b290bf7a01694b76bbfd93927cc8fe9bdefd
LeBron James
polymarket · 0xda431b7c1cb5883dd47f8c6586e2736e08a2bf6d46431a20f01cde7892ca3128
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.477
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.