SimpleFunctions
11 source contracts·Kalshi 9 + Polymarket 2·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 7, 2029 · 1250d

Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 11 contracts. Kalshi at 23%, Polymarket at 5% — a 18pp cross-venue gap.

Implied probability

19%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

23%

9 contracts

Polymarket

5%

2 contracts

Cross-venue gap

18pp

wide divergence

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$9K

11 contracts

Closes

Nov 7, 2029

1250 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 57% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 57% on 2026-06-06
Aggregate of 11 contracts · 31d

Cross-venue edge

Kalshi 23¢ · Polymarket 5¢ · 18pp spread

Buy on Polymarket (5¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (23¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.

Bracket families

5 clusters across 11 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Donald” vs “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Donald

7 contracts$6K

Cluster 2

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Who will win the next presidential election

1 contract$501

Cluster 4

Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028

1 contract$34

Cluster 5

Who will announce Presidential run before 2027

1 contract$0

Recently closed in trump

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Other questions in trump.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.