Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 12 contracts. Kalshi at 21%, Polymarket at 5% — a 16pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
10 contracts
Polymarket
5%
2 contracts
Cross-venue gap
16pp
wide divergence
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
12 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1248 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 21¢ · Polymarket 5¢ · 16pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (5¢, 2 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (21¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
5 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Donald” vs “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald
Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?: Yes
KXTRUMPATTEND
Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029
Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump Jr.
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJTR
Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio
KXRTICKET-28NOV07-DTJRMRUB
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KXVPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Cluster 2
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr.
0x4a9d58…6557
Cluster 3
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Cluster 4
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Cluster 5
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?: Donald Trump Jr.
0xf618b0…877a
What moved the line
- Jun 7Yes↓3pp80→77¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in trump
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31last 39% · 1d
- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 2d
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 2d
- Who will Trump speak to in Maylast 20% · 3d
- Who will Trump announce as next Attorney General by June 30last 93% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In trump
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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