Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 7, 2029
1157 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 13% of their title tokens — “Will Donald” vs “Who will win the next presidential election”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Donald
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-JAN2029
Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump Jr.
KXTRUMPPARDONS-29JAN21-DJTR
Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KXVPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR
Cluster 2
Who will win the next presidential election
Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump
KXPRESPERSON-28-DTRU
Cluster 3
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028
Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr.
KX2028RRUN-28-DJTJR
Analysis
This contract measures the likelihood that Donald Trump Jr. will attend his father's cryptocurrency and business conference originally scheduled for April 25, 2026. At 28%, the market suggests it is more likely he will not attend than will. The relatively low probability may reflect uncertainty about the event's status itself—since today is June 21, 2026, the conference date has already passed without clear public confirmation of whether it occurred or was postponed. Key drivers include whether the conference was rescheduled to a future date, Trump Jr.'s other commitments, and his typical attendance patterns at family business events. The resolution will depend on documentation of his actual attendance, which could come from event coverage, social media confirmation, or official announcements from the conference organizers.
- ›The original April 25, 2026 date has passed as of June 21, 2026, suggesting the conference may have been cancelled, postponed, or already occurred without documented Trump Jr. attendance
- ›Public records or media coverage from the event date would provide direct evidence of attendance or non-attendance
- ›Trump Jr.'s known schedule conflicts or other business commitments in late April 2026 could have prevented attendance
- ›Official conference announcements or social media documentation would clarify whether Trump Jr. was scheduled to appear or actually attended
- ›Historical patterns of Trump Jr.'s attendance at family-connected business events and conferences would inform baseline expectations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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