Donald Trump · Who will attend the NATO Summit
Donald Trump is priced at 82¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 82¢ bid, 85¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Who will attend the NATO Summit?.
Price history
82¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026 in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Donald Trump
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Marco Rubio 93¢
Range
12¢-93¢
Family volume
$64K
Identifier
0x71ee9c14...7758
Jun 7, 2026, 11:38 PM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
82¢
Ask
85¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$9K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Who will attend the NATO Summit?
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
Family volume
$64K
Orderbook snapshot
82 / 85¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026 in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
Identifier
0x71ee9c14…7758
Event family
Who will attend the NATO Summit.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$64K
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Marco Rubio 93¢
Current share
64%
Marco Rubio
polymarket · 0xfff846aea9c0528d0e7803a82fc14a2fbede342f862f9a71e59f658ec60e14f3
Donald Trump
polymarket · 0x71ee9c148f0e2b386ba959aca5954c5e6c428695bf1a5fca0af9194f40487758
JD Vance
polymarket · 0xa46f7716409ea9194c54d014437d572f240f84585504a2078be8e2cf506e0025
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
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Event Probability API
Read 82% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.