Who will attend the NATO Summit
Leader sits at 93% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 84%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Marco Rubio
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
84¢
Donald Trump
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$31K
liquid
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
30 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will attend the NATO Summit
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will attend the 2026 NATO Summit. The 93% price suggests traders view his attendance as highly likely, though not certain. Trump's political position and schedule would primarily drive changes to this probability. Key variables include whether Trump faces scheduling conflicts, domestic political obligations, or health issues that could prevent attendance. The summit date itself will be the primary resolution event—once the NATO Summit occurs and attendance is confirmed or not, this question resolves. Current market depth is modest, with significant volume concentrated in the Trump contract versus alternatives like Marco Rubio (52¢) or JD Vance (18¢), suggesting less active price discovery on who the alternative attendee might be if Trump doesn't participate.
- ›NATO Summit date and Trump's confirmed calendar commitments at that time
- ›Whether Trump holds office or campaign position in June 2026 affecting his availability and diplomatic role
- ›Historical precedent of U.S. leadership attendance at NATO summits and Trump's prior participation patterns
- ›Volume concentration in Trump contract (93¢) versus alternatives suggests limited market consensus on backup scenarios
- ›Polymarket contract liquidity and volume trends ($2119 in Trump contract 24h volume) indicating information flow and trader confidence
What moved the line
- Jun 5Marco Rubio↑26pp61→87¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4JD Vance↓24pp50→26¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 5JD Vance↓15pp26→11¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4Marco Rubio↑11pp50→61¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Donald Trump↑11pp75→86¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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