Will Trump attend NATO Summit
Will Trump attend NATO Summit is priced at 70¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 67¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
70¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026 in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Will Trump attend NATO Summit
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$13K
Identifier
0x71ee9c14...7758
May 26, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 4m ago
Implied probability
Bid
67¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
Family volume
$13K
Orderbook snapshot
67 / 71¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump attends the NATO Summit event scheduled for July 7, 2026 – July 8, 2026 in Ankara, Türkiye. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the NATO Summit is defined as being in physical attendance in the event at any point between the start and end of the Summit. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
Identifier
0x71ee9c14…7758
Event family
Will Trump attend NATO Summit.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$13K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Trump attend NATO Summit 69¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.