What is the current probability for "Who will be the next manager of Real Madrid?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 56¢ (56% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 253 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will be the next manager of Real Madrid?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 100.3% and 207.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will be the next manager of Real Madrid?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will be the next manager of Real Madrid?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Who will be the next manager of Real Madrid?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027.

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56¢

Bid/Ask 59/65¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $650.38·OI $3,242.18·Closes Jan 8, 2027·253d remaining

KXNEXTMANAGERLALIGA-27RMA-JMOU

7-day price283 snapshots · 23 regime

73¢59¢ current

Apr 202¢Apr 30

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 56¢(Δ 0¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 117.4%Close-time delta 207h

Resolution rules

If José Mourinho becomes the next permanent manager of Real Madrid before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 100.3%

IY (No) 207.7%

Adj IY 208%

CRI 1

RV 37407%

VR 23.35

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	100.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	207.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	208%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	37407%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	23.35	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 6:40:13 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 6:38:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNEXTMANAGERLALIGA-27RMA-JMOU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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