Amir Ohana · Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election
Amir Ohana is priced at 1¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 16 inside Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?.
Price history
1¢ current
−49¢Contract brief
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Amir Ohana
Rank
#11 of 16
Leader
Naftali Bennett 39¢
Range
0¢-39¢
Family volume
$11.6M
Identifier
0x8cbdd0c4...18d0
May 26, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
1¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$24K
Family rank
#11 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$11.6M
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 1¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x8cbdd0c4…18d0
Event family
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$11.6M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Naftali Bennett 39¢
Current share
4%
Naftali Bennett
polymarket · 0x9ed0ecc8b8589e67967d44c4420944a41b6a6806419019a1581d514174eee9b1
Benjamin Netanyahu
polymarket · 0x7586a96520578acaaaa4ea84a2582f197f84255da1f3392a7aa300386c187b37
Gadi Eizenkot
polymarket · 0xdbe93b5a701f36076a560fa4b9ba59e365a6e8e2ea6a83764640010657277ca4
Avigdor Lieberman
polymarket · 0xadffc96f54f350b3655f72fe2853c81bfd705e9703f62469e6a14782ad5d4ec0
Gideon Sa’ar
polymarket · 0xfb2cb634e693b1758fc78b38b02754472edd728bd22eb4a7023c6f49419c73d6
Yossi Cohen
polymarket · 0xa653be0f150dbe055a532ea02977338bb31f49d1f723b2a48c1f67847a73cb7d
Yair Lapid
polymarket · 0x45a79193a66e5078a29c625e78e0d4b9a059edef8e206097c48bbfe7eaf9590e
Yariv Levin
polymarket · 0x93d07ffcf5c243b98e655380eb876d4a3393351b7325059064cb5a4b1ff6ceb2
Itamar Ben Gvir
polymarket · 0x4bf44e9885ee8f43148458d5c9537d96c940cf48414557528358d65870131517
Nir Barkat
polymarket · 0xd8625515585b5bf81d9c1262a1d2b0212a6f2a7a5c5f6ef6c993f7cc269f92dd
Yoaz Hendel
polymarket · 0x641ee08666fd2c37f890d59b4fd32ad8a23e8500e1ad070e112a90219a4d4bfa
Ayelet Shaked
polymarket · 0x80a849ac73eefe56d4d613e44b45e32b9f91f0bfc77173b732cffac7daab3b3b
Yair Golan
polymarket · 0xfcd53c97fef81c4ecad8a97c8c47fdf1ce0a54a0daeff7bae53eaa3a9af343f2
Moshe Feiglin
polymarket · 0x673db99d92473e9ee854b8a0ec0cff15d156e5c33a13e1e12db7266d33fde4d3
Amir Ohana
polymarket · 0x8cbdd0c4c6061c9e5c5a94d4a474c1880d0f2ab5ee4704a64af1e77c6d0e18d0
Benny Gantz
polymarket · 0xf773a12cc13214fc493ec398f96c4ea5ec87ea4ff3b29795041d5498e314ad1e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.