Charles Oliveira · Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026
Charles Oliveira is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 11 inside Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?.
Price history
11¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Outcome
Charles Oliveira
Rank
#4 of 11
Leader
Ilia Topuria 67¢
Range
0¢-67¢
Family volume
$75K
Identifier
0xa267ac75...ffdd
May 27, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 23m ago
Implied probability
Bid
7¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$3K
Family rank
#4 of 11
11 outcomes · Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$75K
Orderbook snapshot
7 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0xa267ac75…ffdd
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at —.
Event family
Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$75K
Outcomes
11
Highest price
Ilia Topuria 67¢
Current share
3%
Ilia Topuria
polymarket · 0x4c2a219c18fc5acb51f6ef1bba7ae85a10fc8c1e3976fc3bfd013f0e9bf644af
Arman Tsarukyan
polymarket · 0xb95e2eed6d79fed611ef7d25fbda14a8eb54c951787dba969c6e1021efdde0e4
Justin Gaethje
polymarket · 0xf42d4830ad24f39a6522dbef1c094517f8d37e283f390a02b3162dac40002d45
Charles Oliveira
polymarket · 0xa267ac751ec25021cf6fedbae2aa38c59a732c1bdca1b55587b0bb2ebccaffdd
Max Holloway
polymarket · 0x028fe6fcde67f39bc54d606681523ef84bbdc2a212a76856e04765b4af8fa4db
Benoît Saint Denis
polymarket · 0x8f81d4e8c2eeac12c5d638838f60b21acf680a2b002d81ceaad8734d2dd1dec7
Renato Moicano
polymarket · 0x8548f0a0a0b09c499b8cd20bae2c3b95148a4810880aef17cc9cbbde8b2e6706
Paddy Pimblett
polymarket · 0x3c37a6ecb4080c44d3da28c5d89d6979d1dd3112a6ee66face98f63a7db27b77
Dan Hooker
polymarket · 0x48044aa03834162fec6f65e74c50a6607a659cebd603f1129df384400773eb24
Rafael Fiziev
polymarket · 0xcc83b8eb1b82bf58ecb0291e563814293372e8c083c591137d82a7b0c4943a28
Mateusz Gamrot
polymarket · 0xdf43389b1686b4acbadadeab24d79c21b16f5564bb4af394641e16d2619c1aa1
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.