Will Benoît Saint Denis be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Benoît Saint Denis be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $930k open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and potentially trapped.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $930k open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and potentially trapped. The 5¢ price implies only a 5% probability for Saint Denis to hold the lightweight title by year-end 2026, yet the astronomical 2689% implied yield on yes positions reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin markets where small position sizes create outsized percentage returns. The 8¢ spread and realized volatility of 5048% indicate this is a highly speculative, low-confidence market where the price likely reflects minimal recent trading activity rather than genuine market consensus.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0x8f81d4e8c2eeac12c5d638838f60b21acf680a2b002d81ceaad8734d2dd1dec7 yes 100