Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Max Holloway be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

█████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
23¢
Bid/Ask 1/45¢·Spread 44¢·Vol $0·OI $232.158·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining
0x028fe6fcde67f39bc54d606681523ef84bbdc2a212a76856e04765b4af8fa4db
7-day price142 snapshots · 8 regime
50¢23¢ current
Apr 80¢Apr 29
Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at ¢

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94Close-time delta 17h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.8%
IY (No) 44.5%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 3
Overround 0.7%
LAS 1.87
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)498.8%
IY (No)44.5%
Adj IY0%
CRI3
Overround0.7%
LAS1.87

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
44¢
Computed
4/30/2026, 12:28:34 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 12:23:54 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x028fe6fcde67f39bc54d606681523ef84bbdc2a212a76856e04765b4af8fa4db yes 100

Related concepts