Will Jules Vaughn die in Euphoria: Season 3?

The 57¢ price reflects moderate conviction that Jules survives Season 3, though the extreme 572% realized volatility and 2.45 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty around character fate predictions. The 17¢ spread is notably wide relative to the $67.8K daily volume, indicating thin liquidity despite $1.27M open interest, which creates execution risk for larger positions. With Season 3 premiering April 12 (just 41 days out), the market is pricing in substantial information arrival at 0.7 events per hour, and the asymmetric implied yields (499% vs. 1578%) suggest the "No" side is heavily overpriced relative to the "Yes" side's risk premium.

Resolution rules

"Euphoria: Season 3" is scheduled to air eight episodes weekly on Sundays at 9PM ET, beginning April 12. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Euphoria: Season 3". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will NOT qualify. A death must be permanent to count toward resolution. (For example, an overdose resulting in a stopped heart followed by subsequent revival with medical intervention would not qualify.) Qualifying deaths occurring in any timeline or dimension depicted in "Euphoria: Season 3" will count toward resolution. Flashback scenes showing a character alive before their death, as well as dream sequences, hallucinations, or visions of dead characters, will not affect resolution. Characters who were already confirmed dead before "Euphoria: Season 3" begins will not count toward this market’s resolution. If a character’s fate is deliberately left ambiguous, it will not qualify toward the resolution of this market. Only deaths confirmed by the end of "Euphoria: Season 3" will qualify. Only events depicted in official "Euphoria: Season 3" episodes will count toward resolution. Post-credits scenes count if they are part of the official episode, but supplementary materials such as podcasts, comics, or other media do not count unless they are explicitly referenced within the show itself. The market will resolve after the final episode of "Euphoria: Season 3" is released.

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