Will John Ratcliffe leave the Trump administration before 2027?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $1.04M, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 43¢ spread indicating thin order books on both sides. The Yes position offers a striking 364% risk-adjusted implied yield, but this is likely a mispricing artifact rather than genuine opportunity, given the realized volatility of 995% and vol ratio of 5.56 suggesting highly unstable pricing. The sharp 10¢ price decline over seven days combined with a neutral regime and elevated information arrival rate (3.2/h) suggests the market is reacting to recent news flow, but the lack of trading activity means any position would face severe execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade