Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?

The market prices Leavitt's departure at 48%, reflecting genuine uncertainty about her tenure through end-2026, though the 159.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests traders see asymmetric upside for an exit scenario. With only $161.72 in 24-hour volume against $19.5M open interest, liquidity is notably thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk and making the 5¢ spread meaningful at ~10% of the mid-price. The elevated realized volatility of 180% and vol ratio of 1.40 indicate this market has experienced significant price swings, though the neutral regime score and minimal 7-day movement (47¢ to 48¢) suggest current price stability despite the underlying uncertainty.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

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Regime

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