Who will win the CA-22 primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 94% probability that Who will win the CA-22 primary?. This contract trades at 94¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,418 in open interest, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,418 in open interest, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The massively skewed implied yields—16% for Yes versus 2,109.5% for No—signal that the No side is severely underpriced relative to the Yes position, likely due to minimal contrarian betting. With 199 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 12, this market carries meaningful uncertainty around the CA-22 primary outcome, suggesting the high probability may not fully reflect genuine competitive dynamics in what could be a contested race.
Resolution rules
If David Valadao advances to the general election in CA-22 in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCA22PRIMARY-26-DVAL yes 100