Will 2026 be the hottest year on record
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record is priced at 31¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 31¢ bid, 31¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
31¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$135K
Identifier
KXGTEMP-26-P0
Jun 8, 2026, 1:08 AM UTC · 12m ago
Implied probability
Bid
31¢
Ask
31¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$164
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$135K
Orderbook snapshot
31 / 31¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXGTEMP-26-P0
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$135K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record 31¢
Current share
100%
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record
kalshi · KXGTEMP-26-P0
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.