Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 30¢ price implies only a 30% probability that 2026 beats both 2025's temperature and the 1.28°C threshold, despite elevated realized volatility of 222% suggesting significant uncertainty around climate data releases.
Analysis
The 30¢ price implies only a 30% probability that 2026 beats both 2025's temperature and the 1.28°C threshold, despite elevated realized volatility of 222% suggesting significant uncertainty around climate data releases. The extreme 381% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the asymmetric risk profile typical of tail-event climate markets, though modest 24-hour volume of $1,846 and low info arrival rate (0.3/h) indicate limited conviction driving price discovery. With 259 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this market appears fairly priced for a neutral regime, though the recent 2¢ decline from 31¢ warrants monitoring for potential bearish sentiment shifts as 2026 temperature data begins accumulating.
Resolution rules
If the unsmoothed Land-Ocean Temperature Index value for 2026 reported by NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) is above the 2025 value and 1.28 degrees Celsius, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Trade
sf trade KXGTEMP-26-P0 yes 100