China · Will a human case of Ebola disease
China is priced at 9¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 10¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #12 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
9¢ current
+2¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in China is officially reported before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
China
Rank
#12 of 16
Leader
South Sudan 56¢
Range
6¢-56¢
Family volume
$8K
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CHI
May 27, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 24m ago
Implied probability
Bid
10¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$404
Family rank
#12 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$8K
Orderbook snapshot
10 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in China is officially reported before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CHI
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$8K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
South Sudan 56¢
Current share
5%
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-SUD
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-RWA
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-IND
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-KEN
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-BUR
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-USA
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-RCON
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CAR
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-TANZ
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ANG
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ZAMB
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CHI
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CANA
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-NIGE
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-SOM
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ETHI
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 9% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.