Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 72% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
South Sudan
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
59¢
India
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$27K
liquid
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
219 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a human case of Ebola disease
Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: India
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-IND
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: United States
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-USA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: India
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-IND
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Republic of the Congo
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-DOC
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenya
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: United States
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-USA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Kenya
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-KEN
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Central African Republic
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Rwanda
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-RWA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Tanzania
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-TANZ
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Zambia
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ZAMB
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Somalia
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SOMA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Angola
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ANG
Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: China
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CHI
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Republic of the Congo
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-RCON
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Angola
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ANG
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Zambia
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ZAMB
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Burundi
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-BUR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: South Sudan
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SUD
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Canada
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAN
What moved the line
- May 27India↑41pp21→62¢ · Kalshi
- May 20Burundi↑28pp8→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 27India↑24pp31→55¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Zambia↑20pp9→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 24Angola↑17pp8→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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