SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 219d

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027

Leader sits at 72% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 59%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

72%

South Sudan

runner-up 59¢leader 72¢

Outcomes

20

winner-take-all

Runner-up

59¢

India

Spread

13pp

contested

24h volume

$27K

liquid

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

219 days

Venue

Kalshi

20 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodaySouth Sudan: 72% (12 days, 9 points)South Sudan: 72% on 2026-05-26India: 62% (12 days, 2 points)India: 62% on 2026-05-27Burundi: 55% (12 days, 11 points)Burundi: 55% on 2026-05-27
South Sudan72¢India62¢Burundi55¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will a human case of Ebola disease

20 contracts$27K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: India

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-IND

43¢+24pp$7KK

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: United States

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-USA

35¢+13pp$6KK

Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: India

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-IND

59¢+41pp$3KK

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Republic of the Congo

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-DOC

24¢+1pp$2KK

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenya

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN

51¢+2pp$2KK

Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: United States

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-USA

30¢+8pp$1KK

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Kenya

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-KEN

48¢+11pp$967K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Central African Republic

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAR

34¢+3pp$742K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Rwanda

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-RWA

54¢+1pp$575K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Tanzania

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-TANZ

33¢+4pp$573K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Zambia

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ZAMB

31¢+2pp$553K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Somalia

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SOMA

15¢1pp$502K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Angola

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ANG

25¢4pp$438K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: China

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CHI

10¢+1pp$404K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Republic of the Congo

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-RCON

18¢+3pp$272K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Angola

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ANG

13¢±0$250K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jul 1, 2026?: Zambia

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ZAMB

13¢2pp$250K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Burundi

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-BUR

55¢+1pp$225K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: South Sudan

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SUD

72¢+3pp$143K

Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Canada

KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAN

23¢+4pp$50K

What moved the line

  • May 27India41pp2162¢ · Kalshi
  • May 20Burundi28pp836¢ · Kalshi
  • May 27India24pp3155¢ · Kalshi
  • May 24Zambia20pp929¢ · Kalshi
  • May 24Angola17pp825¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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