Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027
Leader sits at 66% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
South Sudan
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
South Sudan
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
174 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will a human case of Ebola disease
Will a human case of Ebola disease in India be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: India
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-IND
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Rwanda be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Rwanda
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-RWA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Ethiopia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Ethiopia
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ETHI
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Burundi be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Burundi
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-BUR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Central African Republic
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Tanzania be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Tanzania
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-TANZ
Will a human case of Ebola disease in China be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: China
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CHI
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: United States
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-USA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Republic of the Congo
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-DOC
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Oct 1, 2026?: South Sudan
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-SUD
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Kenya be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Kenya
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-KEN
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Canada be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Canada
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-CAN
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Zambia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Zambia
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ZAMB
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Angola be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Angola
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-ANG
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Somalia be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Somalia
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SOMA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Nigeria be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: Nigeria
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-NIGE
Will a human case of Ebola disease in South Sudan be reported before Jan 1, 2027?: South Sudan
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-27-SUD
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Central African Republic be reported before Oct 1, 2026?: Central African Republic
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-CAR
Will a human case of Ebola disease in United States be reported before Oct 1, 2026?: United States
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-USA
Will a human case of Ebola disease in Republic of the Congo be reported before Oct 1, 2026?: Republic of the Congo
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-OCT26-RCON
Analysis
This represents traders' assessment that at least one confirmed human Ebola case will be reported in South Sudan by year-end 2026, currently priced at 65% probability. The elevated probability reflects South Sudan's geographic proximity to recent Ebola activity in Central Africa, ongoing healthcare infrastructure challenges, and cross-border population movement. The baseline risk is pushed higher by historical patterns of spillover events and lower containment capacity compared to wealthier nations. The main factors that would shift this probability include: surveillance data from health agencies through the remainder of 2026, any confirmed cases in neighboring countries, or official statements from South Sudanese or international health authorities about outbreak risk. Real-time epidemiological monitoring by organizations like the WHO will be the primary mechanism for resolving this question.
- ›South Sudan's healthcare system capacity for detecting and confirming Ebola cases, compared to neighboring countries with active or recent transmission
- ›Geographic and transportation links between South Sudan and areas with known Ebola circulation (Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic)
- ›WHO and national health authority surveillance reports and case confirmations through December 2026
- ›Livestock trade and cross-border movement patterns that could facilitate zoonotic spillover or human transmission
- ›Historical frequency of Ebola spillover events in sub-Saharan Africa and typical outbreak progression timelines
What moved the line
- Jul 6United States↑7pp16→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10India↓6pp18→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7United States↑6pp13→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Republic of the Congo↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 4United States↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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