United States · Will a human case of Ebola disease
United States is priced at 24¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 23¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside Will a human case of Ebola disease.
Price history
24¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United States is officially reported before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
United States
Rank
#6 of 16
Leader
Kenya 41¢
Range
2¢-41¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-USA
May 28, 2026, 2:08 PM UTC · 18m ago
Implied probability
Bid
23¢
Ask
27¢
Spread
4¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#6 of 16
16 outcomes · Will a human case of Ebola disease
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
23 / 27¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in United States is officially reported before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 1, 2026
Identifier
KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-USA
Event family
Will a human case of Ebola disease.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Kenya 41¢
Current share
20%
Kenya
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-KEN
Rwanda
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-RWA
India
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-IND
South Sudan
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-SUD
Tanzania
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-TANZ
United States
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-USA
Zambia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ZAMB
Angola
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ANG
Central African Republic
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CAR
Nigeria
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-NIGE
Somalia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-SOM
Ethiopia
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-ETHI
Burundi
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-BUR
China
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CHI
Republic of the Congo
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-RCON
Canada
kalshi · KXEBOLACOUNTRY-JUL26-CANA
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
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Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
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Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.