Will Alan Wilson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?

Alan Wilson's Republican nomination odds have compressed significantly over the past week, rising from 26¢ to 37¢ on Kalshi while trading 4¢ higher on Polymarket at 43¢, suggesting recent positive developments or shifting expectations among bettors. The 39¢ price implies an exceptionally high 313% yield for Yes positions despite relatively thin liquidity ($21,285 open interest, $2,221 daily volume), and the extreme 517% realized volatility indicates this market experiences sharp, unpredictable swings that may reflect sparse trading activity rather than fundamental uncertainty. With 198 days until the November 2026 close and a 4¢ cross-venue gap favoring Polymarket, there's potential arbitrage opportunity, though the low information arrival rate (1.3/hour) and neutral regime suggest the market is currently pricing in genuine uncertainty rather than responding to breaking news.

Resolution rules

If Alan Wilson wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 South Carolina Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade