Will Nancy Mace be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$47K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
145 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Pamela Evette be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina
Will Pamela Evette be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?: Pamela Evette
KXGOVSCNOMR-26-PEVE
Cluster 2
Will Alan Wilson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina
Will Alan Wilson be the Republican nominee for Governor in South Carolina?: Alan Wilson
KXGOVSCNOMR-26-AWIL
Analysis
This probability represents the likelihood that Nancy Mace secures the Republican nomination for South Carolina's governorship. The 36% probability reflects a competitive race where Mace is a significant contender but faces uncertainty about her ultimate viability as the party's nominee. Her path depends on factors including primary election dynamics, fundraising success, and consolidation of support among Republican voters. The nomination will be resolved through South Carolina's primary process, with results expected in 2026. Key considerations include whether other credible Republican candidates enter the race, how effectively Mace mobilizes conservative voters, and whether any major political developments shift party dynamics before the nomination is finalized.
- ›South Carolina Republican primary voting patterns and the number of competing candidates in the race
- ›Mace's fundraising totals and campaign organization capacity compared to other potential nominees
- ›Recent polling data from South Carolina Republicans on candidate preferences and name recognition
- ›Whether establishment or insurgent Republican factions coalesce around specific candidates
- ›Any major endorsements or primary election results from other states that might influence South Carolina GOP dynamics
What moved the line
- Jun 4Alan Wilson↑15pp15→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Pamela Evette↓13pp81→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 10Alan Wilson↑10pp14→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Alan Wilson↓7pp25→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Alan Wilson↓6pp30→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Virginia Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 55% · 0d
- Will Tera Anderson be the Republican nominee for NV-03last 4% · 0d
- Who will advance from the California Lieutenant Governor primarylast 3% · 0d
- Nevada Governor Democratic Primary Winnerlast 97% · 0d
- CA-40 Primary Winnerslast 73% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm Election Odds Shift: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Toss-Up
Democrats are now 78¢ to win the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a coin flip with Republicans at 56¢. The California Governor primary heavily favors Xavier Becerra at 89¢. Peru's election shows Keiko Fujimori solidifying at 93¢.
California & LA Primaries Heat Up: Hilton Surges, Pratt Fades
The California gubernatorial primary and Los Angeles mayoral race are seeing major positioning shifts. Xavier Becerra is the heavy favorite (99¢) in CA, but Steve Hilton surged 7 cents to 96 cents to advance to the runoff. In LA, Spencer Pratt's mayoral bid continues to lose momentum, falling 3 cents to 1 cent, while the Nithya Raman vs Karen Bass matchup solidifies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.