SimpleFunctions

Before Jun 8 · Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun

Before Jun 8 is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 5 inside Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun.

Price history

61¢ current

+52¢
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
Jun 4, 2026Jun 7, 2026

Contract brief

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of both advancers (or an outright winner) for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Jun 8

Rank

#4 of 5

Leader

Before Jun 30 98¢

Range

80¢-98¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXAPCALLLAMAYOR-26JUN03-JUN0812A

Jun 7, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 8m ago

Implied probability

61¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 7, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC · 8m ago

Bid

85¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

12¢

24h volume

$1K

Family rank

#4 of 5

5 outcomes · Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun

Closes

Jun 8, 2026

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

85 / 97¢

Kalshi
12¢ spread
BidSize
85¢2
55¢10
53¢4
14¢53
13¢4.5K
AskSize
97¢1.0K
99¢109

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the Associated Press makes its first definitive call of both advancers (or an outright winner) for the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 8, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jun 8, 2026

Identifier

KXAPCALLLAMAYOR-26JUN03-JUN0812A

SF Signal
SF Index
58820.00
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$1K

Outcomes

5

Highest price

Before Jun 30 98¢

Current share

78%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

6

VR

1.31

IAR

1.6/h

Overround

2.5%

LAS

0.41

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

6
VR
1.31
IAR
1.6/h
Overround
2.5%
LAS
0.41

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.