Will AP call the Los Angeles mayoral primary before 11:05 PM ET on Jun 2, 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 15
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Before Jun 20
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun
Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 8, 2026?: Before Jun 8
KXAPCALLLAMAYOR-26JUN03-JUN0812A
Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 12, 2026?: Before Jun 12
KXAPCALLLAMAYOR-26JUN04-JUN1212A
Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 15, 2026?: Before Jun 15
KXAPCALLLAMAYOR-26JUN03-JUN1512A
Will AP call the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary before 12AM ET on Jun 20, 2026?: Before Jun 20
KXAPCALLLAMAYOR-26JUN04-JUN2012A
Analysis
This market estimates the probability that the Associated Press will call the Los Angeles mayoral primary election before 10:00 AM ET on June 3, 2026. At 88%, traders are pricing in a high likelihood of an early call, reflecting expectations that vote counts will be sufficient for AP to make a projection. The call timing depends on two primary factors: the margin between leading candidates and how quickly county election officials process and report results. Wider gaps between top contenders typically enable faster calls, while tight races require more complete vote counts. The main uncertainty resolver is the actual election results and vote-counting pace on election night and the morning after, which will determine whether AP has enough data to call the race with confidence.
- ›Vote margins between the top candidates—races with leads greater than the margin of remaining ballots allow earlier calls
- ›Speed of Los Angeles County ballot processing and reporting, which influences when AP receives sufficient data for projection models
- ›Historical AP call patterns for California municipal elections and how recent changes to vote-counting procedures affect timing
- ›Whether any candidate reaches a threshold that makes a runoff scenario unlikely or eliminates uncertainty about outcomes
- ›Actual voter turnout levels, which affect both the density of counted votes needed for statistical confidence and the timeline for complete reporting
What moved the line
- Jun 7Before Jun 8↑45pp12→57¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 7Before Jun 12↑28pp49→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Before Jun 15↑28pp65→93¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 6Before Jun 12↑27pp22→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Before Jun 8↓7pp23→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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