Will Austin win the MLS Western Conference?

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Austin win the MLS Western Conference?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. Austin's odds have surged 267% over seven days to 11¢, reflecting either new bullish sentiment or thin liquidity driving outsized moves—the $0 24h volume and $2,863 open interest suggest the latter.

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11¢
Bid/Ask 0/19¢·Spread 19¢·Vol $0·OI $2,863·Closes Jan 8, 2027·261d remaining
KXMLSWEST-26-ATX
7-day price19 snapshots · 2 regime
11¢11¢ current
Apr 82¢Apr 14

Analysis

5d ago

Austin's odds have surged 267% over seven days to 11¢, reflecting either new bullish sentiment or thin liquidity driving outsized moves—the $0 24h volume and $2,863 open interest suggest the latter. The 1,108% implied yield on Yes positions is extraordinarily high, but the 19¢ spread and Cliff Risk Index of 8 indicate severe illiquidity that makes this yield largely theoretical. With 267 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a low-conviction, low-volume market where price discovery is unreliable.

Resolution rules

If Austin is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Western Conference champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1131.8%
IY (No) 17.3%
Adj IY 566%
CRI 8
Overround 0.3%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1131.8%
IY (No)17.3%
Adj IY566%
CRI8
Overround0.3%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
19¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:07:44 PM
Observability lowEvent type sports
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 4:53:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXMLSWEST-26-ATX yes 100

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