Will Saint Louis win the MLS Western Conference
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$589
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
196 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference
Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose
KXMLSWEST-26-SJ
Cluster 2
Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Western Conference
Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Western Conference?: Los Angeles F
KXMLSWEST-26-LAFC
Cluster 3
Will Austin win the MLS Western Conference
Will Austin win the MLS Western Conference?: Austin
KXMLSWEST-26-ATX
Cluster 4
Will Minnesota win the MLS Western Conference
Will Minnesota win the MLS Western Conference?: Minnesota
KXMLSWEST-26-MIN
Cluster 5
Will San Diego win the MLS Western Conference
Will San Diego win the MLS Western Conference?: San Diego
KXMLSWEST-26-SD
Cluster 6
Will Seattle win the MLS Western Conference
Will Seattle win the MLS Western Conference?: Seattle
KXMLSWEST-26-SEA
Cluster 7
Will Vancouver win the MLS Western Conference
Will Vancouver win the MLS Western Conference?: Vancouver
KXMLSWEST-26-VAN
Analysis
The 12% probability reflects market expectations that Saint Louis will win the MLS Western Conference in 2026. This relatively low odds indicates the market views the team as a significant longshot compared to traditional contenders. The current assessment likely reflects St. Louis's recent competitive positioning, roster composition, and historical performance in the conference. Major factors pushing this probability up would include significant roster acquisitions during the transfer window or exceptional early-season performance. The probability could decline if competing Western Conference teams make stronger signings or if St. Louis experiences early injuries to key players. The season's outcome will largely be determined by actual match results as they accumulate, with the Conference championship typically resolved in late 2026.
- ›St. Louis's current squad depth and recent win-loss record compared to other Western Conference franchises
- ›Transfer market activity during the 2026 offseason, particularly high-profile player acquisitions or departures
- ›Early season performance (approximately April-June 2026) as an indicator of competitive trajectory relative to rival teams
- ›Injury status of key players in midfield and defensive positions that drive team performance
- ›Head-to-head record and goal differential against top Western Conference competitors through the season
What moved the line
- Jun 20Los Angeles F↑11pp9→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Los Angeles F↓9pp18→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20San Diego↑8pp3→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Vancouver↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Vancouver↓7pp31→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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