Will Saint Louis win the MLS Western Conference
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Jan 8, 2027
109 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference
Will San Jose win the MLS Western Conference?: San Jose
KXMLSWEST-26-SJ
Cluster 2
Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference
Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference?: Houston
KXMLSWEST-26-HOU
Cluster 3
Will Vancouver win the MLS Western Conference
Will Vancouver win the MLS Western Conference?: Vancouver
KXMLSWEST-26-VAN
Cluster 4
Will Dallas win the MLS Western Conference
Will Dallas win the MLS Western Conference?: Dallas
KXMLSWEST-26-DAL
Cluster 5
Will Saint Louis win the MLS Western Conference
Will Saint Louis win the MLS Western Conference?: Saint Louis
KXMLSWEST-26-STL
Cluster 6
Will Colorado win the MLS Western Conference
Will Colorado win the MLS Western Conference?: Colorado
KXMLSWEST-26-COL
Cluster 7
Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Western Conference
Will Los Angeles F win the MLS Western Conference?: Los Angeles F
KXMLSWEST-26-LAFC
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Saint Louis will win the 2026 MLS Western Conference championship. At 5 cents per contract, traders are pricing in roughly a 5% chance, suggesting significant skepticism about the team's playoff prospects relative to better-capitalized competitors like Vancouver (26%) and Los Angeles FC (11%). The team's actual regular-season performance through mid-September—including their current standings position, injury situation, and recent form—drives most of the pricing, while uncertainty around late-season trades and playoff momentum creates the remaining variance. The Western Conference playoff bracket will be determined by the regular season's final results in late October, which represents the key resolution point for this market.
- ›Saint Louis's current MLS Western Conference table position and goal differential as of early September 2026
- ›Total regular-season games remaining and realistic path to top-two seeding needed for favorable playoff positioning
- ›Historical performance metrics: the team's win-loss record, points-per-game average, and head-to-head records against teams ranked above them
- ›Roster availability including injury status of key players and likelihood of mid-season acquisitions through the secondary transfer window
- ›Vancouver's 26% pricing advantage, indicating market consensus that at least one other Western Conference team is significantly favored to advance further than Saint Louis
What moved the line
- Sep 17Vancouver↓6pp34→28¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17San Jose↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Saint Louis↑3pp6→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Los Angeles F↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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