What is the current probability for "Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 23¢ (23% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 499.3% and 44.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Bitcoin Dominance hit 70% before 2027?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. Bitcoin dominance at 21¢ implies a 21% probability of hitting 70% before 2027, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 530% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile—particularly given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the 259-day timeframe.

█████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

23¢

Bid/Ask 22/23¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $9.16·OI $1,911.43·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

0x34352feae03626fa48ee8106c2720975ed444b643e1111b0fa2770ca480da9f9

7-day price831 snapshots · 11 regime

51¢23¢ current

Apr 813¢Apr 30

Analysis

14d ago

Bitcoin dominance at 21¢ implies a 21% probability of hitting 70% before 2027, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 530% annualized yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile—particularly given Bitcoin's historical volatility and the 259-day timeframe. The market shows minimal liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 4¢ spread, raising concerns about execution difficulty, though the $6.57M open interest indicates some underlying conviction. Price movement from 18¢ to 21¢ over seven days reflects modest bullish momentum, but the neutral regime score and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 4 suggest the market is relatively stable without imminent catalysts driving dominance toward the 70% threshold.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any TradingView 1 minute candle for BTC.D between Sept 5, 2025, 15:30 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final "High" value of 70.00% or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is TradingView, specifically the BTC.D "High" percentage currently available at https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CRYPTOCAP%3ABTC.D with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the percentage according to TradingView BTC.D, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.3%

IY (No) 44.6%

Adj IY 478%

CRI 3

RV 718%

VR 2.73

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	44.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	478%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	718%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.73	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 7:00:00 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 6:53:29 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x34352feae03626fa48ee8106c2720975ed444b643e1111b0fa2770ca480da9f9 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →