Over 12 coins launched in 2026 end the year in the top 100?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1,214 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 24¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 260-day timeframe to expiry. The asymmetric implied yields (445% for Yes vs. 44.4% for No) and massive 2431% realized volatility suggest price discovery is severely constrained, with the wide 15¢ spread reflecting minimal trading activity rather than genuine market consensus. The sharp 6¢ decline over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 3 indicates this illiquid market may experience sudden repricing once volume emerges, making it unsuitable for serious position-taking without significant additional liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, the number of coins launched in 2026 that appear in the top 100 by market capitalization on CoinGecko is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is CoinGecko’s Top 100 market cap rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Indicators

Regime

Trade