SimpleFunctions

Before July 1, 2026 · Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before

Before July 1, 2026 is priced at 1¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 1¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 9 inside Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before.

Price history

1¢ current

0¢5¢
May 26, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Carlos Alcaraz competes in an ATP Match after May 19, 2026 and before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before July 1, 2026

Rank

#9 of 9

Leader

Before January 20, 2027 94¢

Range

1¢-94¢

Family volume

$120

Identifier

KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-701

May 26, 2026, 12:23 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

1¢
Latest venue quote
May 26, 2026, 12:23 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#9 of 9

9 outcomes · Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before

Closes

Jan 26, 2027

Family volume

$120

Orderbook snapshot

0 / 1¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
AskSize
80¢5.0K
87¢300
98¢46
99¢560
100¢9.4K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Carlos Alcaraz competes in an ATP Match after May 19, 2026 and before July 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 26, 2027

Identifier

KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-701

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.