Before August 15, 2026 · Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before
Before August 15, 2026 is priced at 46¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 52¢ bid, 64¢ ask, 12¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 9 inside Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before.
Price history
46¢ current
+43¢Contract brief
If Carlos Alcaraz competes in an ATP Match after May 19, 2026 and before August 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before August 15, 2026
Rank
#7 of 9
Leader
Before January 20, 2027 91¢
Range
1¢-91¢
Family volume
$414
Identifier
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-815
May 27, 2026, 10:38 PM UTC · 28m ago
Implied probability
Bid
52¢
Ask
64¢
Spread
12¢
24h volume
$50
Family rank
#7 of 9
9 outcomes · Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
Family volume
$414
Orderbook snapshot
52 / 64¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Carlos Alcaraz competes in an ATP Match after May 19, 2026 and before August 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 26, 2027
Identifier
KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-815
Event family
Will Carlos Alcaraz compete in an ATP match before.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$414
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Before January 20, 2027 91¢
Current share
12%
Before January 20, 2027
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-120
Before December 15, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-1215
Before November 15, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-1115
Before October 1, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-101
Before November 1, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-111
Before September 1, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-901
Before August 15, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-815
Before July 18, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-718
Before July 1, 2026
kalshi · KXATPRETURN-27-ALC-701
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.