Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

This market prices an extremely low-probability geopolitical tail risk at 9¢, generating an asymmetric 1,430% implied yield for "Yes" positions that reflects the binary nature of invasion scenarios rather than genuine conviction in near-term escalation. The 258-day timeframe and substantial $843k open interest suggest meaningful hedging demand despite the negligible price, though the zero spread and flat 7-day price action indicate consensus stability around this low valuation. The 10 Cliff Risk Index warrants attention—resolution hinges on a discrete, high-stakes event with limited gradations, making this primarily a volatility and geopolitical uncertainty play rather than a probability-weighted forecast.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade