Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$247K
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
0xd9fb11…e6d4
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that China would militarily invade Taiwan sometime between now and December 31, 2026. At 7%, the probability reflects relatively low near-term risk, though military tensions remain a persistent geopolitical concern. The probability is influenced by current cross-strait diplomatic relations, military posturing by both China and Taiwan, and the strategic calculus of Beijing regarding costs versus benefits of military action. Key factors driving this relatively low assessment include the significant military and logistical challenges of a full-scale invasion, international economic interdependencies, and the absence of clear catalysts suggesting imminent military action as of mid-2026. The probability could shift notably based on major political developments in Taiwan, changes in U.S. military positioning or policy statements, or unexpected military incidents in the Taiwan Strait.
- ›Current military balance and logistics of potential amphibious invasion across Taiwan Strait
- ›Status of U.S. military presence, defense commitments, and policy statements regarding Taiwan
- ›Results of Taiwan elections or major political developments affecting cross-strait relations
- ›Frequency and nature of military exercises or incidents in Taiwan Strait region
- ›Economic interdependencies and international responses that would affect Beijing's cost-benefit analysis
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In china
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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