SimpleFunctions

Clairo · KXALBUMRELEASE-26

Clairo is priced at 82¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 74¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXALBUMRELEASE-26.

Price history

82¢ current

+10¢
70¢80¢
Apr 28, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If Clairo releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Clairo

Rank

#3 of 16

Leader

Olivia Rodrigo 99¢

Range

11¢-99¢

Family volume

$1K

Identifier

KXALBUMRELEASE-26-CLA

May 27, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 22m ago

Implied probability

82¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 8:38 PM UTC · 22m ago

Bid

74¢

Ask

82¢

Spread

Reported volume

$3K

Family rank

#3 of 16

16 outcomes · KXALBUMRELEASE-26

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$1K

Orderbook snapshot

74 / 82¢

Kalshi
8¢ spread
BidSize
74¢32
73¢8
72¢24
71¢25
70¢22
AskSize
82¢400
89¢80
96¢34
97¢1
98¢450

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Clairo releases a new album in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXALBUMRELEASE-26-CLA

SF Signal
SF Index
237.89
Regime
neutral

Browse this series

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets
Per-series collection — every live contract in the KXALBUMRELEASE series on Kalshi, sorted by 24h volume.

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

58.7%

IY (No)

475.8%

Adj IY

238%

CRI

3

Overround

37.4%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

58.7%
475.8%
Adj IY
238%
3
Overround
37.4%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.