SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — 83 contracts, SF signal on every row.

83 live Kalshi contracts (90 audited). Median implied probability sits at 33%. 3 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SOM -6c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 19.5pp · cheapest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BEN · richest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-KAT.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXALBUMRELEASE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXALBUMRELEASE",
    "label": "Artist 2026 Album Release Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 83,
    "volume24hSum": 409.07,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00159
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 13 Jul 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100-82.0
Vol Flow$409-47%
min $157max $2.2K
Breadth-100%-100.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 02:15 UTC
Jul 6past 7d · UTCJul 13 · 00:23

Live contracts

83

Median IY

33¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$409

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-6¢

KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SOM

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — liquidity topography (top 11 of 83 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 8.8 → 1908.6%

$10$1001d7d30d90d1908.6958.78.8

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

Showing top 20 of 83

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Migos release a new album in 2026?: Migos10¢
IY >999%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$156
Will John Mayer release a new album in 2026?: John Mayer71¢
IY 87%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$107
Will SZA release a new album in 2026?: SZA44¢
IY 270%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$46
Will KATSEYE release a new album in 2026?: KATSEYE96¢
IY 8.8%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$45
Will Travis Scott release a new album in 2026?: Travis Scott53¢
IY 188%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$31
Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026?: Rihanna19¢
IY 904%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$11
Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2026?: Frank Ocean18¢
IY 966%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Will Tate McRae release a new album in 2026?: Tate McRae39¢
IY 332%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Camilo release a new album in 2026?: Camilo32¢
IY 451%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Jay-Z release a new album in 2026?: Jay-Z32¢
IY 451%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 331%Resid —$0
Will Leon Thomas release a new album in 2026?: Leon Thomas43¢
IY 281%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Justin Timberlake release a new album in 2026?: Justin Timberlake15¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Trippie Redd release a new album in 2026?: Trippie Redd79¢
IY 56%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Tyga release a new album in 2026?: Tyga17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Tyla release a new album in 2026?: Tyla94¢
IY 14%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Tyler, The Creator release a new album in 2026?: Tyler, The Creator32¢
IY 451%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will USHER release a new album in 2026?: USHER26¢
IY 604%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album in 2026?: Lil Uzi Vert75¢
IY 71%Cliff 3Edge —RVol 178%Resid —$0
Will Lil Wayne release a new album in 2026?: Lil Wayne31¢
IY 472%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will The Weeknd release a new album in 2026?: The Weeknd24¢
IY 672%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
83 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

From market_changes
8h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
88¢94→88 (-6)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will Playboi Carti release a new album in 2026?: Playboi Carti
25¢31→25 (-6)
open →
14h agoKalshi
Will Playboi Carti release a new album in 2026?: Playboi Carti
25¢30→25 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 13 Jul 2026 02:08:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →