SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — 78 contracts, SF signal on every row.

78 live Kalshi contracts (90 audited). Median implied probability sits at 33%. 490 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SOM +70c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 20.2pp · cheapest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BIG · richest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-MIL.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXALBUMRELEASE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXALBUMRELEASE",
    "label": "Artist 2026 Album Release Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 78,
    "volume24hSum": 6694.45,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00159
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 06 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$6.7K+634%
min $23max $6.5K
Breadth9%+7.3pp
min -79%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 01:30 UTC
Aug 30past 7d · UTCSep 6 · 00:23

Live contracts

78

Median IY

33¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$6.7K

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

+70¢

KXALBUMRELEASE-26-SOM

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — liquidity topography (top 15 of 78 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 13.0 → 1419.2%

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d1419.2716.113.0

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

Showing top 20 of 78

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will 2 Chainz release a new album in 2026?: 2 Chainz59¢
IY 216%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.9K
Will Beyoncé release a new album in 2026?: Beyoncé56¢
IY 245%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.5K
Will Pharrell Williams release a new album in 2026?: Pharrell Williams32¢
IY 662%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$1.2K
Will Playboi Carti release a new album in 2026?: Playboi Carti23¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$745
Will Nicki Minaj release a new album in 2026?: Nicki Minaj41¢
IY 448%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$453
Will Sia release a new album in 2026?: Sia39¢
IY 487%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$202
Will Olivia Dean release a new album in 2026?: Olivia Dean27¢
IY 842%Cliff 3Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$200
Will Post Malone release a new album in 2026?: Post Malone64¢
IY 175%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$200
Will Bad Bunny release a new album in 2026?: Bad Bunny21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$131
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar44¢
IY 397%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$54
Will Young Thug release a new album in 2026?: Young Thug93¢
IY 23%Cliff 13Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$50
Will Offset release a new album in 2026?: Offset50¢
IY 312%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 137%Resid —$28
Will Chappell Roan release a new album in 2026?: Chappell Roan18¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol 361%Resid —$4
Will Miley Cyrus release a new album in 2026?: Miley Cyrus96¢
IY 13%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
Will Tyler, The Creator release a new album in 2026?: Tyler, The Creator42¢
IY 430%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 984%Resid —$2
Will SZA release a new album in 2026?: SZA36¢
IY 554%Cliff 2Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Tate McRae release a new album in 2026?: Tate McRae47¢
IY 351%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 130%Resid —$0
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in 2026?: Taylor Swift48¢
IY 338%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 432%Resid —$0
Will Justin Timberlake release a new album in 2026?: Justin Timberlake13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
Will Travis Scott release a new album in 2026?: Travis Scott50¢
IY 312%Cliff 1Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$0
78 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

From market_changes
6h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
78¢8→78 (+70)
open →
5h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
78¢8→78 (+70)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
8¢78→8 (-70)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
78¢8→78 (+70)
open →
6h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
8¢78→8 (-70)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
78¢8→78 (+70)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
8¢78→8 (-70)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will sombr release a new album in 2026?: sombr
8¢78→8 (-70)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 06 Sep 2026 01:08:46 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →