SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — 47 contracts, SF signal on every row.

47 live Kalshi contracts (90 audited). Median implied probability sits at 14%. 43 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BAB -66c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 69.4pp · cheapest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-WEE.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXALBUMRELEASE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXALBUMRELEASE",
    "label": "Artist 2026 Album Release Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 47,
    "volume24hSum": 365.09,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.02341
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Sep 2026Methodology
Disagreement—
warming up — first reading at 08:45 UTC
Vol Flow$365-90%
min $325max $3.5K
Breadth-47%+2.6pp
min -78%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 08:45 UTC
Sep 13past 7d · UTCSep 20 · 08:23

Live contracts

47

Median IY

14¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$365

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-66¢

KXALBUMRELEASE-26-BAB

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — liquidity topography (top 6 of 47 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 1335.1 → 11475.0%

$10$1001d7d30d90d11475.06405.01335.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

Showing top 20 of 47

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$215
Will Migos release a new album in 2026?: Migos9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$101
Will Billie Eilish release a new album in 2026?: Billie Eilish7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge —RVol —Resid —$23
Will The Weeknd release a new album in 2026?: The Weeknd3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$12
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album in 2026?: Lana Del Rey21¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$10
Will Jay-Z release a new album in 2026?: Jay-Z17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$5
Will Chappell Roan release a new album in 2026?: Chappell Roan17¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Childish Gambino release a new album in 2026?: Childish Gambino3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Coldplay release a new album in 2026?: Coldplay26¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Daft Punk release a new album in 2026?: Daft Punk3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Daniel Caesar release a new album in 2026?: Daniel Caesar13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Doja Cat release a new album in 2026?: Doja Cat6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Eminem release a new album in 2026?: Eminem13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Esdeekid release a new album in 2026?: EsDeeKid70¢
IY 152%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Frank Ocean release a new album in 2026?: Frank Ocean13¢
IY >999%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Geese release a new album in 2026?: Geese14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Justin Bieber release a new album in 2026?: Justin Bieber20¢
IY >999%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Kali Uchis release a new album in 2026?: Kali Uchis38¢
IY 579%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Linkin Park release a new album in 2026?: Linkin Park14¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Lola Young release a new album in 2026?: Lola Young8¢
IY >999%Cliff 12Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
47 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

From market_changes
15h agoKalshi
Will Lil Baby release a new album in 2026?: Lil Baby
2¢68→2 (-66)
open →
19h agoKalshi
Will Megan Thee Stallion release a new album in 2026?: Megan Thee Stallion
2¢51→2 (-49)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Rauw Alejandro release a new album in 2026?: Rauw Alejandro
2¢43→2 (-41)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Roddy Ricch release a new album in 2026?: Roddy Ricch
2¢41→2 (-39)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Bryson Tiller release a new album in 2026?: Bryson Tiller
3¢40→3 (-37)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Ice Spice release a new album in 2026?: Ice Spice
2¢39→2 (-37)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Big Sean release a new album in 2026?: Big Sean
2¢38→2 (-36)
open →
15h agoKalshi
Will Leon Thomas release a new album in 2026?: Leon Thomas
2¢37→2 (-35)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 20 Sep 2026 08:38:41 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →