SimpleFunctions

Markets · Series

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — 89 contracts, SF signal on every row.

89 live Kalshi contracts (90 audited). Median implied probability sits at 37%. 13 contracts moved 5cents+ in the last 24h (biggest: KXALBUMRELEASE-26-KEN -13c). Refreshed every 5 minutes.

Fit: mean deviation 21.9pp · cheapest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-DAF · richest KXALBUMRELEASE-26-KAT.

Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE.

Series JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/series/KXALBUMRELEASE
Term curve JSON
GET/api/public/yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE
›example response
{
  "scope": {
    "type": "series",
    "slug": "KXALBUMRELEASE",
    "label": "Artist 2026 Album Release Markets"
  },
  "live": {
    "contractCount": 89,
    "volume24hSum": 162.36,
    "hasThesisCount": 0
  },
  "termFit": {
    "seriesType": "unknown",
    "hazardRate": 0.00363
  }
}
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 26 May 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100
Vol Flow$162-82%
min $71max $1.8K
Breadth-100%-160.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 03:45 UTC
May 19past 7d · UTCMay 25 · 22:23

Live contracts

89

Median IY

37¢

implied prob (YES)

24h volume

$162

Days to catalyst

none

no scheduled catalyst

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-13¢

KXALBUMRELEASE-26-KEN

Artist 2026 Album Release Markets — liquidity topography (top 11 of 89 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = annualized %. Range: 71.1 → 525.2%

$101d7d30d90d525.2298.271.1

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

Showing top 20 of 89

Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.

Will Lil Uzi Vert release a new album in 2026?: Lil Uzi Vert70¢
IY 71%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$44
Will Rihanna release a new album in 2026?: Rihanna28¢
IY 427%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$36
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album in 2026?: Lana Del Rey66¢
IY 85%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 957%Resid —$35
Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter33¢
IY 337%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$21
Will Pharrell Williams release a new album in 2026?: Pharrell Williams26¢
IY 472%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$19
Will Tate McRae release a new album in 2026?: Tate McRae39¢
IY 259%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
Will SZA release a new album in 2026?: SZA44¢
IY 211%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$2
Will PinkPantheress release a new album in 2026?: PinkPantheress56¢
IY 130%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar53¢
IY 147%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 787%Resid —$1
Will Ed Sheeran release a new album in 2026?: Ed Sheeran24¢
IY 525%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will 21 Savage release a new album in 2026?: 21 Savage36¢
IY 295%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Bryson Tiller release a new album in 2026?: Bryson Tiller63¢
IY 97%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Calvin Harris release a new album in 2026?: Calvin Harris50¢
IY 166%Cliff 1Edge —RVol 124%Resid —$0
Will Camilo release a new album in 2026?: Camilo32¢
IY 352%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Chappell Roan release a new album in 2026?: Chappell Roan22¢
IY 588%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Childish Gambino release a new album in 2026?: Childish Gambino6¢
IY >999%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Clairo release a new album in 2026?: Clairo73¢
IY 61%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Coldplay release a new album in 2026?: Coldplay32¢
IY 352%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Dua Lipa release a new album in 2026?: Dua Lipa34¢
IY 322%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Daft Punk release a new album in 2026?: Daft Punk4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
89 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in Artist 2026 Album Release Markets

From market_changes
3h agoKalshi
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar
52¢65→52 (-13)
open →
3h agoKalshi
Will Jay-Z release a new album in 2026?: Jay-Z
25¢38→25 (-13)
open →
8h agoKalshi
Will Sabrina Carpenter release a new album in 2026?: Sabrina Carpenter
33¢44→33 (-11)
open →
21h agoKalshi
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar
58¢67→58 (-9)
open →
23h agoKalshi
Will Benson Boone release a new album in 2026?: Benson Boone
13¢20→13 (-7)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar
60¢67→60 (-7)
open →
20h agoKalshi
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new album in 2026?: Kendrick Lamar
61¢55→61 (+6)
open →
18h agoKalshi
Will Jay-Z release a new album in 2026?: Jay-Z
26¢32→26 (-6)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 26 May 2026 03:38:23 GMT.

Term-structure analytics

Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXALBUMRELEASE →

Category view

All Kalshi Entertainment markets. /markets/category/entertainment →

Venue view

Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →