What is the current probability for "Will David Bailey be the 1st Edge drafted?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 57¢ (57% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 3, 2026. 10 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will David Bailey be the 1st Edge drafted?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3964.5% and 3378.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will David Bailey be the 1st Edge drafted?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will David Bailey be the 1st Edge drafted?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 57% probability that Will David Bailey be the 1st Edge drafted?. This contract trades at 57¢ on Kalshi, closing May 3, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 53¢ spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

███████████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

57¢

Bid/Ask 49/58¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $8,699.8·OI $11,180.28·Closes May 3, 2026·10d remaining

KXNFLDRAFTEDGE-26P1-DBAI

7-day price523 snapshots · 48 regime

57¢48¢ current

Apr 89¢Apr 23

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility with zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 53¢ spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical 13,585% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a realized volatility of 3,039% and a sharp 7-day decline from 27¢ to 14¢ indicates wild price swings driven by minimal trading activity rather than fundamental information arrival (0.5/h). With only 17 days to the 5/3/2026 close and just $3,580 in open interest, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliable for serious prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

If David Bailey is the 1st Edge drafted in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3964.5%

IY (No) 3378.0%

Adj IY 1900%

CRI 1

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.04

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3964.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	3378.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1900%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 2:41:05 PM

Observability highEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/23/2026, 2:38:13 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLDRAFTEDGE-26P1-DBAI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →