What is the current probability for "Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 15¢ (15% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2831.2% and 7.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 15% probability that Will DegenPing be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 15¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable.

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15¢

Bid/Ask 5/11¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

KXUPONLY-01-DEGE

Analysis

14d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15¢ price potentially unreliable. The 2671% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of minimal liquidity rather than genuine edge, while the 6¢ spread represents 40% of the current price. With 260 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, this appears to be a niche prediction with insufficient trading activity to establish a credible probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If DegenPing is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2831.2%

IY (No) 7.8%

Adj IY 1416%

CRI 19

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2831.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1416%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 4:11:58 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 4:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUPONLY-01-DEGE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →