Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on establishing or directing a federal review process for artificial intelligence models before their public release before Jan 1, 2027?

US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle

Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity

Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.