Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Eric Jones place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 74¢ (74% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 558 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Eric Jones place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 23.0% and 186.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Eric Jones place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	23.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	186.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	184%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	182%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.86	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Will Eric Jones place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions