CA-04 Primary Winners
Leader sits at 96% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 92%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Mike Thompson
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
92¢
Eric Jones
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$297
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 2, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
CA-04 Primary Winners
Analysis
This 39% probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate will win the California 4th Congressional District primary in 2026. The estimate sits between two different market assessments: Kalshi contracts price it at 62%, while Polymarket contracts average 35%, a substantial 27-percentage-point gap suggesting disagreement about the race outcome. The probability would likely move higher if polling shows the favored candidate gaining ground, or lower if unexpected challengers enter or if fundraising shifts materially. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this question, providing the key catalyst when California holds its primary vote in June 2026.
- ›Kalshi and Polymarket show a 27-point spread, indicating significant market disagreement that could narrow as campaign information becomes clearer
- ›Eric Jones appears as the leading name across multiple contracts, trading at 50¢ on Polymarket and 63-89¢ on Kalshi, suggesting he is the frontrunner though not consensus favorite
- ›Trading volume remains low ($96-522 per day), meaning thin liquidity could amplify price movements from new information or modest money flows
- ›No recent polling data or campaign finance reports are reflected in the summary, creating room for shift as 2026 progresses
- ›The California primary is scheduled for June 2026 and will provide definitive resolution of all related contracts
What moved the line
- Jun 12Eric Jones↑9pp77→86¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 15Eric Jones↑6pp86→92¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Eric Jones↑6pp92→98¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 10Eric Jones↑4pp73→77¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 13Eric Jones↓4pp86→82¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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