SimpleFunctions

Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16.8 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will FedEx Corporation report Above 16.8 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing July 23, 2026. This market is essentially dead with zero liquidity and a 0¢ price indicating near-zero conviction that FedEx will exceed 16.8 million average daily packages in Q4 2026.

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85¢mid
Bid/Ask 81/88¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jul 23, 2026·84d remaining
KXFDX-26JUNADV-16800000.0

Analysis

10d ago

This market is essentially dead with zero liquidity and a 0¢ price indicating near-zero conviction that FedEx will exceed 16.8 million average daily packages in Q4 2026. The extreme 1537.4% implied yield on the "No" side and massive 10¢ spread reflect the complete absence of trading activity rather than genuine market sentiment. With 95 days to expiry and no open interest, this appears to be an abandoned or failed market launch that lacks sufficient participant interest to generate meaningful price discovery.

Resolution rules

If FedEx Corporation reports Above 16800000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 101.9%
IY (No) 1851.2%
Adj IY 846%
CRI 4
Overround 5.4%
LAS 0.09
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)101.9%
IY (No)1851.2%
Adj IY846%
CRI4
Overround5.4%
LAS0.09

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.568
Spread
7¢
Computed
4/30/2026, 6:39:50 PM
Observability highEvent type data_release
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 6:38:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXFDX-26JUNADV-16800000.0 yes 100

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