What is the current probability for "Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 6 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 59231.9% and 731.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will gas hit (Low) $3.95 by April 30?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 9/10¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $751.657·OI $13,447.101·Closes Apr 30, 2026·6d remaining

0x6f9143b5c37be6829a0cd89127d146cb7eccf777e17bd355b06641641a14192f

7-day price173 snapshots · 13 regime

39¢10¢ current

Apr 217¢Apr 24

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and April 30, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 59231.9%

IY (No) 731.3%

Adj IY 26654%

CRI 9

Overround -0.7%

LAS 0.10

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	59231.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	731.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	26654%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:57:32 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:44 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x6f9143b5c37be6829a0cd89127d146cb7eccf777e17bd355b06641641a14192f yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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