Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026 is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 9¢ bid, 13¢ ask, 4¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
11¢ current
−3¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Outcome
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$0
Identifier
0x2b97e33b...6954
Jun 8, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
9¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
4¢
Reported volume
$15K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
9 / 13¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if George R. R. Martin publicly and explicitly announces by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that an installment of A Song of Ice and Fire titled "The Winds of Winter" will be released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "The Winds of Winter" (e.g., Fire & Blood, A Sworn Sword) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution. The book must have the words "The Winds of Winter" in the title to qualify. This market is concerned only with the announcement of release. The resolution source for this market will be official information from George R. R. Martin or a consensus of credible sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x2b97e33b…6954
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 11¢, 0¢ versus this page.
Event family
Related outcomes.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026 11¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
weather
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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