Will Winds of Winter be announced?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 16 contracts. Kalshi at 11%, Polymarket at 8% — a 3pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
15 contracts
Polymarket
8%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
3pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$212K
16 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
104 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 11¢ · Polymarket 8¢ · 3pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (8¢, 1 contract) and sell on Kalshi (11¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
10 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above” vs “Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 40 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A40
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A60
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 90 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A90
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 70 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A70
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 50 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A50
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 100 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A100
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 80 after July 6, 2026 and before Jan 1, 2027?
KXHORMUZAVG-27JAN01-A80
Cluster 2
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DROD
Cluster 3
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
0x2b97e3…6954
Cluster 4
Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-MMAC
Cluster 5
Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-NMAD
Cluster 6
Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-EGON
Cluster 7
Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-JROD
Cluster 8
Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-DCAB
Cluster 9
Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-GLOP
Cluster 10
Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026
Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
KXVENEZDEFACTO-27JAN01-VLOP
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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