Will Winds of Winter be announced?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
11%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
214 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026
Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?
0x2b97e3…6954
Recently closed in entertainment
- Top US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026yeslast 6% · 5d
- #2 US Netflix Movie on Apr 27, 2026yeslast 3% · 5d
- Will the #1 Movie on Netflix have at least 6 million viewsAt least 12 millionlast 97% · 5d
- Will ICEMAN, MAID OF HONOUR, AND HABIBTI by Drake have above 1750000 combined Album Equivalent Units during the May 15, 2026 - May 21, 2026 tracking weeklast 82% · 7d
- Drake 'Iceman' First Week Album Sales?: 600k+last 87% · 8d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (11% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In entertainment
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.