ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jul 23, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

1 source contract·Polymarket 1·closed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 161d

Will Winds of Winter be announced?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

0%50%100%

Kalshi

—

not bound

Polymarket

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$15K

1 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

161 days

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?3¢$15K

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026

1 contract$15K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

0x2b97e3…6954

3¢—$15KP→

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Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.

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