SimpleFunctions

R-House, D-Senate · Will House Control

R-House, D-Senate is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside Will House Control.

Price history

2¢ current

0¢5¢
Apr 30, 2026May 9, 2026

Contract brief

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

R-House, D-Senate

Rank

#4 of 4

Leader

D-House, D-Senate 44¢

Range

2¢-44¢

Family volume

$7K

Identifier

KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RD

May 24, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

2¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 5:24 AM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$662

Family rank

#4 of 4

4 outcomes · Will House Control

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Family volume

$7K

Orderbook snapshot

2 / 2¢

Kalshi
0¢ spread
BidSize
2¢33K
2¢29K
2¢10K
2¢346
2¢11
AskSize
2¢15K
2¢7.0K
2¢9.0K
2¢8.8K
2¢1.7K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If ALL of the following occur on Feb 1, 2027: House Control: Republican, Senate Control: Democratic, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Feb 1, 2027

Identifier

KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO-27FEB-RD

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will House Control.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$7K

Outcomes

4

Highest price

D-House, D-Senate 44¢

Current share

10%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.341

Observability

none

Event type

political

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SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.