What is the current probability for "Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 19¢ (19% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 8, 2027. 261 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 596.4% and 32.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Houston win the MLS Western Conference?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 8, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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19¢

Bid/Ask 0/19¢·Spread 19¢·Vol $0·OI $6·Closes Jan 8, 2027·261d remaining

KXMLSWEST-26-HOU

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $6 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 19¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 583.7% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the thin market depth, while the 4 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics. With 267 days to expiry and neutral regime conditions, this contract would require substantial volume to establish a credible probability estimate for Houston's conference championship odds.

Resolution rules

If Houston is the 2026 Major League Soccer (MLS) Western Conference champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 596.4%

IY (No) 32.8%

Adj IY 298%

CRI 4

Overround 0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	596.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	32.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	298%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

19¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 5:07:35 PM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 4:53:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLSWEST-26-HOU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →