Will Iran Play in the World Cup
Will Iran Play in the World Cup is priced at 98¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 97¢ bid, 98¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
98¢ current
+10¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran participates in any official game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran of the nation’s removal or withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup will immediately resolve this market "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will Iran Play in the World Cup
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$410K
Identifier
0xcc6b2547...f9d7
Jun 8, 2026, 12:27 AM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
97¢
Ask
98¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$58K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Family volume
$410K
Orderbook snapshot
97 / 98¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran participates in any official game at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official announcement from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran of the nation’s removal or withdrawal from the 2026 FIFA World Cup will immediately resolve this market "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA and/or the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Identifier
0xcc6b2547…f9d7
Cross-venue match
Similar contract on kalshi at 97¢, +1¢ versus this page.
Event family
Will Iran Play in the World Cup.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$410K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Iran Play in the World Cup 98¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.