ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 17, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

1 source contract·Polymarket 1·closed just now·Closes Aug 2, 2026 · 46d

Will Iran Play in the World Cup

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

97%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

—

not bound

Polymarket

97%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$17K

1 contracts

Closes

Aug 2, 2026

46 days

Open top contract Read answer iran

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?97¢$17K

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Iran Play in the World Cup

1 contract$17K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Iran Play in the World Cup?

0xcc6b25…f9d7

97¢—$17KP→

Analysis

This market is pricing a 95% probability that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled for June-July 2026 in the United States. Iran must finish in a qualifying position within their confederation (AFC) during the ongoing World Cup qualification rounds. The high probability reflects Iran's historical participation record—they've qualified for six of the last eight World Cups—and their relatively strong position in the current Asian qualification stage. The main uncertainty centers on Iran's recent performance trends, competition from other strong AFC teams, and the remaining qualifying matches over the next few months. The decisive factor will be the outcomes of remaining AFC qualification fixtures through late 2025 and early 2026, which will determine which teams advance. Iran currently occupies a qualifying position but faces ongoing competition from regional rivals.

›Iran's current standings in AFC World Cup qualifying group relative to qualification positions available
›Historical qualification success rate: Iran qualified in 6 of 8 World Cups since 2002
›Remaining AFC qualification matches schedule and Iran's performance requirements
›Strength of competing teams in Iran's qualifying group and overall AFC confederation
›Any unforeseen disruptions (political sanctions, team issues, or administrative bans affecting eligibility)

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

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This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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