Will Iran Play in the World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$57K
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
55 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Iran Play in the World Cup
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
0xcc6b25…f9d7
Analysis
This market is pricing a 95% probability that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, scheduled for June-July 2026 in the United States. Iran must finish in a qualifying position within their confederation (AFC) during the ongoing World Cup qualification rounds. The high probability reflects Iran's historical participation record—they've qualified for six of the last eight World Cups—and their relatively strong position in the current Asian qualification stage. The main uncertainty centers on Iran's recent performance trends, competition from other strong AFC teams, and the remaining qualifying matches over the next few months. The decisive factor will be the outcomes of remaining AFC qualification fixtures through late 2025 and early 2026, which will determine which teams advance. Iran currently occupies a qualifying position but faces ongoing competition from regional rivals.
- ›Iran's current standings in AFC World Cup qualifying group relative to qualification positions available
- ›Historical qualification success rate: Iran qualified in 6 of 8 World Cups since 2002
- ›Remaining AFC qualification matches schedule and Iran's performance requirements
- ›Strength of competing teams in Iran's qualifying group and overall AFC confederation
- ›Any unforeseen disruptions (political sanctions, team issues, or administrative bans affecting eligibility)
What moved the line
- Jun 2Will Iran Play in the World Cup?↑4pp92→96¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in iran
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- Will USD hit ___ Iranian rials by May 31?: ↓ 1.5Mlast 40% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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