Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
97%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
1 contracts
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
57 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Iran Play in the World Cup
Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
0xcc6b25…f9d7
Analysis
This 90% probability reflects the market's assessment that Iran will qualify for and participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States. Iran has historically qualified for multiple World Cups, including 2018 and 2022, and currently competes in Asian qualifying matches for 2026. The main factors determining this probability are Iran's performance in the remaining AFC (Asian Football Confederation) qualifying matches and their competitive standing within their group. The critical upcoming event is the completion of AFC World Cup qualifying in late 2025, which will definitively determine which Asian nations advance to the tournament. Any major geopolitical disruptions or disqualifications would be exceptional but remain possible regulatory outcomes.
- ›Iran currently participates in active 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying under AFC regulations with scheduled matches through late 2025
- ›Iran's historical qualification rate shows participation in 5 of the last 6 World Cups (1998, 2006, 2014, 2018, 2022), indicating consistent competitive capacity in Asian qualifiers
- ›AFC qualifying format determines the 4-5 Asian spots for 2026; Iran's group standing and remaining fixtures directly impact advancement probability
- ›Potential disqualification or withdrawal due to geopolitical factors, while uncommon, remains a non-zero risk that could reduce qualification odds
- ›The final AFC qualifying matches concluding in November 2025 represent the definitive resolution point for this market
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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