It be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2030
Before Jan 1, 2030 is priced at 15¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 6 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20.
Price history
15¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before Jan 1, 2030
Rank
#4 of 6
Leader
Before Jan 1, 2035 31¢
Range
6¢-31¢
Family volume
$19K
Identifier
KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-30JAN01
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
15¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$5K
Family rank
#4 of 6
6 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Family volume
$19K
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
Identifier
KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-30JAN01
Event family
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$19K
Outcomes
6
Highest price
Before Jan 1, 2035 31¢
Current share
28%
Before Jan 1, 2035
kalshi · KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-35JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2033
kalshi · KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-33JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2031
kalshi · KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-31JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2030
kalshi · KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-30JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2029
kalshi · KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-29JAN01
Before Jan 1, 2028
kalshi · KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-28JAN01
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.