SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2035 · 3139d

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2035

Leader sits at 31% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

31%

Before Jan 1, 2035

runner-up 24¢leader 31¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

24¢

Before Jan 1, 2033

Spread

7pp

contested

24h volume

$19K

liquid

Closes

Jan 1, 2035

3139 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBefore Jan 1, 2035: 26% on 2026-05-27Before Jan 1, 2033: 21% on 2026-05-27Before Jan 1, 2031: 14% on 2026-05-27
Before Jan 1, 203526¢Before Jan 1, 203321¢Before Jan 1, 203114¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 1d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20

6 contracts$19K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2030?: Before Jan 1, 2030

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-30JAN01

14¢$5KK

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2031?: Before Jan 1, 2031

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-31JAN01

19¢$4KK

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2035?: Before Jan 1, 2035

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-35JAN01

31¢$4KK

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2029?: Before Jan 1, 2029

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-29JAN01

10¢$2KK

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2033?: Before Jan 1, 2033

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-33JAN01

24¢$2KK

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-28JAN01

6¢$1KK

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.