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It be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 2031

Before Jan 1, 2031 is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 20¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 6 inside Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20.

Price history

20¢ current

+6¢
10¢20¢
May 27, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Jan 1, 2031

Rank

#3 of 6

Leader

Before Jan 1, 2035 31¢

Range

6¢-31¢

Family volume

$19K

Identifier

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-31JAN01

May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Implied probability

20¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago

Bid

19¢

Ask

20¢

Spread

24h volume

$4K

Family rank

#3 of 6

6 outcomes · Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20

Closes

Jan 1, 2031

Family volume

$19K

Orderbook snapshot

19 / 20¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
19¢1.4K
18¢3.2K
16¢1.0K
14¢1.0K
13¢500
AskSize
20¢1.7K
78¢43
79¢58
80¢286
81¢2.9K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2031

Identifier

KXSPACEDATACENTER-26-31JAN01

SF Signal
SF Index
46.35
Regime
neutral

Event family

Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that the operational deployment in Earth orbit of a data center delivering at least 1 megawatt of electrical power to compute hardware on a single spacecraft or a unified co-orbital cluster operating as one compute system, actively processing workloads before Jan 1, 20.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$19K

Outcomes

6

Highest price

Before Jan 1, 2035 31¢

Current share

22%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

92.7%

IY (No)

5.1%

Adj IY

46%

CRI

4

Overround

0.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

92.7%
5.1%
Adj IY
46%
4
Overround
0.0%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.